The European Commission seems to have finally realised that the Ukrainian crisis has been mismanaged and, as a consequence, will create future risks for Europe’s energy supply. It recently released a massive 227-page report on energy security in Europe which, while it touches on a wealth of subjects, is clearly focused on the critical situation facing natural gas. Europe imports about 66% of its natural gas consumption and of this, more than 40% comes from Russia.

With the recent signature between Russia and China of the “deal of the century” about natural gas, the situation of gas supplies for Europe appears to be more and more difficult, with serious short-term risks of gas shortage. The seriousness of the situation clearly appears in the report which includes recommendations for unprecedented measures such as launching “energy-security stress tests to simulate a disruption in the gas supply for the coming winter”.

Natural gas is a fuel largely dedicated to indoor heating and, as such, it produces a lot of hot air. But natural gas also generates another kind of hot air when it is mentioned by politicians. In this sense, the new Commission report manages to introduce plenty of this, for instance when it mentions “sustainable fossil-fuel production” (an oxymoron if there ever was one). But, at least, the report manages to get rid of a large outflow of natural gas-related hot air by not even mentioning the much touted (among politicians) idea of replacing Russian gas with shale gas imported from the United States. Even assuming that it were possible to pay for the enormous costs of the infrastructure necessary, it would be several years before natural gas from the US could find its way to Europe – and, by then, shale-gas production will most likely be declining, some industry analysts believe.

So, the report should be praised for recognising the existence of the problem. However, understanding the problem does not necessarily lead to good solutions. What we can read in the press release summarising the report is the usual mishmash of the trivially generic (“further developing energy technologies.”), the politically correct (“speaking with one voice in external energy policy”), the very difficult (“seek ties to new partner countries and supply routes”), the already well known (“increasing energy efficiency”), and the like. In short, it is a timid response to what could be an epoch-making crisis for Europe.

Europe has largely exhausted its fossil fuel resources and importing fuels is going to be more and more expensive and difficult in a world dominated by competition for its remaining resources. In practice, the only way to increase energy security for Europe is to expand the role of renewables, which already provide a significant fraction of Europe’s energy and are doing an important job in reducing the need of natural gas for electricity production. Unfortunately, facing the current supply uncertainties, this report is a lost occasion for speaking forcefully about the need of a renewed effort on renewable energy.

Ugo Bardi, a professor of physical chemistry at the University of Florence, is the author of “Extracted: how the quest for mineral wealth is plundering the planet”, a book that emerged from a 2013 report for the Club of Rome, an international think-tank.