Cheney's decision not to run for Senate sparks Speaker chatter

Rep. Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyOvernight Defense: Senate confirms US military’s first African American service chief | Navy to ban display of Confederate flags | GOP lawmakers urge Trump not to cut troops in Germany Republicans urge Trump to reject slashing US troop presence in Germany Cheney blasts Trump move to draw down troops in Germany: ‘Dangerously misguided’ MORE’s (R-Wyo.) unexpected decision to forgo a Senate bid has GOP colleagues speculating she has ambitions beyond her No. 3 post among House Republicans.

While many GOP lawmakers were surprised that Cheney opted against running to replace outgoing Sen. Mike EnziMichael (Mike) Bradley EnziGOP senators dodge on treatment of White House protesters House GOP lawmakers urge Senate to confirm Vought The Hill’s Morning Report – Can Sanders be stopped? MORE (R-Wyo.), particularly with her strong polling numbers, several argued that staying in the House offers her a quicker path to the top.

“She has more power and voice here. [She’s] angling to be Speaker if the top two can’t pull it off,” one GOP lawmaker said, adding that the House is “a shorter route to meaningful power than Senate backbench.”

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When Cheney informed colleagues Thursday of her decision to stay in the House, she cited her commitment to helping the GOP take back the House in 2020.

“I believe I can have the biggest impact for the people of Wyoming by remaining in leadership in the House of Representatives and working to take our Republican majority back,” she said in a statement.

At a House Republican Conference meeting the same day, Cheney told the room she wants to help make House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin Owen McCarthyHouse Republicans hopeful about bipartisan path forward on police reform legislation Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names McConnell: States should make decision on Confederate statues MORE (R-Calif.) the next Speaker, according to multiple sources with knowledge of her remarks.

But despite her support for McCarthy, several GOP lawmakers said a “knife fight” between top members over the Speaker’s gavel or minority leader position down the line is not out of the realm of possibility.

“It’s D.C., everybody has their fangs out. I think she sees a higher profile — Speaker, president, who knows,” one GOP lawmaker said. “I would keep an eye on how close the majority becomes more and more of a reality. The knives will come out quicker and they’ll come out longer.”

In Wyoming, Enzi’s retirement sparked speculation about Cheney, said University of Wyoming professor Jim King. He said Cheney would have been the favorite in the Senate race but that she would have faced a formidable opponent in former Rep. Cynthia LummisCynthia Marie LummisCheney’s decision not to run for Senate sparks Speaker chatter Liz Cheney decides against Senate bid in Wyoming Liz Cheney leads GOP field by 20 points in potential Wyoming Senate race: poll MORE (R-Wyo.).

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King also said questions about whether Cheney is really from Wyoming likely would not be revived if she continued to move up House GOP’s leadership tree.

Cheney — the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney — has seen a meteoric rise in power since first being elected to Congress in 2016, becoming the only woman in House GOP leadership after just one congressional term.

Lauded by her peers as smart, well-versed on key issues and possessing her father’s political instincts, some project she could be eyeing the top position in the conference, whether it be next term or further down the road.

The top two House Republicans — McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve ScaliseStephen (Steve) Joseph ScaliseThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: New America’s Anne-Marie Slaughter says countries around world are deciding not to trust US; All eyes on New York as city begins phased reopening Bottom line Clyburn: Cowed GOP ascribes ‘mystical powers’ to Trump MORE (R-La.) — praised her decision to forgo a Senate run.

“I’m overly excited,” McCarthy told The Hill. “I think this is another sign that we’re going to win back the majority.”

Scalise said he’s “excited” about her decision.

“She’s been a great part of our team, and I know she had other good options presented to her, but I’m really glad she chose to stay in the House,” he said.

Things could change as November draws near, one senior GOP official told The Hill. The official highlighted the shadow Speaker’s race between McCarthy and Scalise during the last cycle, before Democrats ultimately took back the House, and argued a repeat of that could provide Cheney with an opportunity to move up the ranks.

“There are clear tensions between the top two leaders. I think she sees that,” the source said, adding she’s “not staying [in the House] just to stay” where she is now.

“She won’t challenge [McCarthy], but she will pick up the pieces,” another Republican lawmaker said. “She will go for [the] top spot when it can be achieved. … Watch the leadership games begin.”

Taking on either McCarthy or Scalise would come with its own challenges.

President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE has tweeted support for McCarthy to become the next Speaker should Republicans take back the House, a scenario that seems unlikely in 2020. McCarthy has also broken fundraising records, outraising the two previous GOP Speakers despite being in the minority and facing the challenge of raising funds ahead of a presidential election year.

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And while McCarthy dropped out of the 2015 Speaker’s race, he easily won his race against Rep. Jim JordanJames (Jim) Daniel JordanHouse Republicans hopeful about bipartisan path forward on police reform legislation Tim Scott to introduce GOP police reform bill next week Floyd’s brother urges Congress to take action MORE (R-Ohio) to secure minority leader. His role in fighting back against Trump’s impeachment has also helped him smooth over tensions with members who gained a reputation for being a thorn in leadership’s side when the GOP held the majority.

Another source said that if Republicans were to flip the House back to GOP control, it’s highly improbable anyone will attempt to oust McCarthy, since he would likely be credited with the win.

“President Trump would at least for the next two years go to bat for Kevin, specifically if it came down to him and Liz Cheney, because there are people in the administration that simply aren’t big Cheney fans and actually took Rand PaulRandal (Rand) Howard PaulRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Louisville passes ‘Breonna’s Law’ banning no-knock warrants Rand Paul aide joins Trump campaign, RNC fundraising group MORE’s side more than they have Liz Cheney when it comes to the Trump doctrine, etc.,” one senior GOP lawmaker said.

“McCarthy was smart enough to forge a relationship — it didn’t take place immediately, but eventually build that relationship — and that kind of loyalty there Trump certainly supports in return.”

The lawmaker also doesn’t see Cheney angling to challenge Scalise, who recruited her to join the leadership team, for the No. 2 position.

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“She doesn’t go after Scalise, nobody can go after Scalise. Scalise is the most liked of the three,” the lawmaker said.

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Others noted the political climate following the election will likely be a strong factor in what the makeup of GOP leadership will look like in 2021.

Multiple members said that in the event Trump loses the election or Republicans lose additional House seats, rank-and-file members will likely seek a leadership shake-up.

Other members also tamped down speculation Cheney is looking to edge out anyone anytime soon, noting her father was also a “House guy” and that she may be playing the long game. But some said it’s possible she’s looking to forge a deal with another leadership member for their support for a higher position later on.

“She is young and a woman. This is a longer play, four to eight years,” another said. “Trump influence will wane shortly after 2020, even assuming he wins.”