Cameron’s chance to make history

Starting today, the prime minister commands new authority not just in Britain but also in Europe.

Last night was above all a momentous personal triumph for David Cameron, who has emerged as a massively enhanced politician.

He can now tell a heroic tale. Here is a man who took over a traumatized Conservative party just after suffering its third successive general election defeat. Many predicted the party would never attain power again. Indeed, David Cameron might well have been relegated to a footnote in history had Gordon Brown had the courage to call a general election in the summer of 2007.

Now, Cameron has won a second term. He has furthermore achieved the overall majority – or something so close that it makes no difference – that eluded him in 2010.

From now on he will command a new authority. He has been transformed overnight from novice to international statesman. He has also secured a place in history as a front rank Conservative prime minister, comparable to Harold MacMillan or Stanley Baldwin.

Samantha Cameron recently remarked that her job was “to make sure David gets out of Downing Street sane.” David Cameron is well aware that that his three immediate predecessors – Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, and Margaret Thatcher – were half way round the bend when they left government.

The prime minister has already stated he won’t seek a third term. My guess is that, egged on by his sensible wife, Cameron will step down in 2018, in good time for a managed transition which will enable the Conservatives to fight the 2020 election under new leadership.

So he is more than half way through his premiership. In the time that remains he faces three historic challenges, the most urgent of which is the economy.

Claims that Cameron has led an austerity government are largely false. Public spending has barely been trimmed and remains near record levels, with the deficit approaching £100 billion a year.

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Britain faces deeper spending cuts over the next two years than over the last five. Yesterday’s election makes them much easier to manage. The Labour Party is crippled by defeat and is about to embark on a wounding period of self-examination from which it may never emerge. Political opposition to the cuts will come from the new SNP rump in parliament — noisy but ineffective.

Above all, Cameron’s new authority will make real austerity much easier. The electorate has endorsed the much-derided Conservative long term economic plan, which now carries a legitimacy it previously lacked.

So do Cameron’s other reforms in welfare and education. He now has the opportunity to make his mark as one of the great reforming prime ministers.

Cameron’s second challenge concerns his pledge to hold a referendum on British membership of the European Union. This referendum is now certain to go ahead, and will probably be held at the end of 2017.

Enormous pitfalls loom. The prime minister has promised to recast Britain’s constitutional relationship with Europe. It is still unclear what demands Cameron will make, and doubtful that European leaders will agree to those demands. The timetable is very tight for the kind of treaty negotiation that Cameron has demanded.

Yet here again the prospect has been transformed by the election results. Starting today, Cameron commands new authority not just in Britain but also in Europe, where he now counts as the most powerful and respected leader after German Chancellor Angela Merkel. His bargaining power has been hugely enhanced. Merkel wants to keep Britain in Europe and will see Cameron as a crucial ally in the chaotic years ahead. She will do whatever she can to help.

The Tory Party will split over Europe. I expect that Iain Duncan Smith will emerge as leader of the Tory “No” campaign, with Owen Paterson his lieutenant; they will command the support of around 100 MPs, perhaps more.

Six months ago this type of split might have been fatal, but not after last night. Not only does Cameron possess a new status, he will also have far more patronage at his disposal. The collapse of the Liberal Democrats and their exit from government means that there are dozens more ministerial jobs to keep mutinous back-benchers quiet.

So the Tory split on Europe will do far less damage than seemed likely last week. Duncan Smith will be careful to limit his differences with Cameron to the single issue of Europe.

As long as reasonable concessions are achieved from Brussels, every other cabinet minister is likely to support British membership of the EU. Boris Johnson, the favorite to succeed Cameron as Tory leader following his return to the Commons as MP for Uxbridge, will join the “Yes” camp.

To sum up: David Cameron has an opportunity to build on the legacy of Sir Edward Heath and resolve the European issue once and for all.

The third great issue facing Cameron is the future of the United Kingdom. This is in peril. Alex Salmond will now lead a phalanx of almost 60 MPs, the first time in 100 years that such a nationalist block has emerged at Westminster. (SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was not standing for election.)

Yet the Conservative parliamentary majority means that this SNP presence will only have nuisance value. They can be ignored. Cameron will be wise to handle the SNP members with great care. The presence of Irish home-rulers in parliament at the start of the 20th century was a portent of Partition and Irish independence 20 years later.

The economy, Europe, and the future of the union are the three great issues facing David Cameron. And there is one other item of unfinished business. In the last parliament, thanks to Liberal Democrat spite, the review of constituency boundaries was never completed.

This led to great unfairness. The Tory Party would have enjoyed a majority nearer 50 under a more equitable system. Last night’s Tory victory means that those new boundaries will most certainly be in place by the next general election. It has truly been a historic, unforgettable night for David Cameron and the Conservative Party.

Peter Oborne is associate editor of the Spectator. He recently resigned as chief political commentator of the Daily Telegraph. He was voted columnist of the year at the 2013 Press Gazette awards and is author of The Triumph of the Political Class.

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