As New Ukraine Peace Talks Begin, Risk of Broader Conflict Looms

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany gathered on Wednesday in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, to try to broker a peace agreement after 10 months of conflict that has claimed more than 5,000 lives and set the stage for a protracted proxy war, with the U.S. and NATO forces on one side and Russia on the other.

Even as the world leaders convened, violence flared in eastern Ukraine, underscoring the critical need to reach an agreement.

“There is no military solution to this conflict, only a political one; and a new supply of U.S. arms will provide ammunition for Russian leaders who believe, fairly or not, that America is attempting to turn Ukraine into a military base near Russia’s borders.”
—Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation

As he arrived in Minsk, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko said: “Either the situation goes down the road of de-escalation, ceasefire … or the situation goes out of control.”

According to the New York Times:

While details of the potential deal haven’t been released, the Associated Press explored key sticking points at the talks, including:

• Drawing a new line of division: Ukraine wants the same one that was agreed upon in September, while Russia wants a new line that reflects the rebels’ significant territorial gains since then.
• Withdrawing Russian troops and equipment from eastern Ukraine: Russia says it does not have any troops and military hardware in the east, a stance scoffed at by Ukraine and NATO.
•  Securing the Ukraine-Russian border: Ukraine wants to get control back over its border with Russia to stem the flow of Russian fighters and weapons, while Russia says that’s up to the rebels who have captured some key border posts.
• Giving the separatists more autonomy: Ukraine says it may offer them broad rights under Ukrainian law but Russia wants guarantees. Russia also wants Ukraine to end its financial blockade of the east.

German chancellor Angela Merkel “has emphasized repeatedly since she announced the renewed peace initiative last week that the chances of success were slim,” the Times added. And French foreign minister Laurent Fabius told France Inter radio, “It is really a last-chance negotiation.”

“Still, Moscow expressed optimism,” Reuters reports. “A Russian diplomatic source said it was 70 percent likely that an agreement would be reached.”

The Telegraph is live-blogging the proceedings in Minsk.

Meanwhile, in a one-on-one phone conversation Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama personally warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that unless an acceptable peace deal is reached in the talks, Russia will face increased costs for its encroachment into Ukrainian territory and its continued support of separatist rebels.